by Pita Okute

 Media reports reveal that a new political group is about to step in and deodorise our steamy political space. As buzz words go, this one has magic in its aural wings, like the “Open Sesame” to a new world of fresh possibilities and stellar achievements for Nigerian democracy.

 Unveiled as “a pro-democracy movement and pressure group of like-minded Nigerians who are committed to changing the political order,” the group laid robust claim to mantle of “the third political force to rescue Nigeria from corrupt and inert political leadership and system by 2019.”

 Now, this toga of Third Force is defined by the dictionary, as “a third element, group, bloc, etc., functioning as a counterbalancing, neutralizing, or moderating force or influence in a struggle between two established powers.”

 Parading quite a number of celebrated names from different areas of national life, this new political group has the rather distinctive name of Nigeria Interventionist Movement (NIM). It remains to be seen whether NIM is just a working title or permanent brand identity and single minded proposition for its forceful emergence on the political stage.

 Whatever the case, NIM has introduced new quotients into the political calculations for 2019. Already, significant sections of the educated elite; journalists, lawyers and other professionals are waxing poetic in support. Indeed, many people who should know better are gearing to jump, as they did in 2015, unto what may likely be another poorly assembled political bandwagon.   

 But we have seen it all before, have we not? Beginning from the faraway days of the independence struggle; disparate characters like S G Ikoku, Ikenna Nzimiro, Chike Obi, Alfred Diette Spiff, Wenike Briggs, Tunji Otegbeye with Joseph Tarka, Aminu Kano, Saa’d Zungur Waziri Ibrahim and others, sought to forge political alliances away from the AG/NPC/ NCNC divides.

 Their ambition? To counterbalance the stranglehold of the Big Three on the political direction and progress of the nation. Mostly, because of weaker political structures than the three regional giants, the ‘’third forces’’ fizzled out each time.
Again, during the fiasco preceding the Biafra War, determined efforts to forge a third force- and neutralise the spiralling tension between Lagos and Enugu- took place. One of those manoeuvres led to the incarceration of Wole Soyinka. The subsequent invasion of the Midwest and advance into the Western Region by Victor Banjo and Emmanuel Ifeajuna was premised on this same dream. Like the nationalists before them, the battle commanders failed to muster the logistic backbone necessary for the successful moderation of the balance of powers at the time.

 Other accounts exist of strenuous endeavours by disadvantaged politicians to create viable neutralising platforms and wrest control of the polity from more endowed parties. The only successful attempt so far happened in 2015, though the APC could hardly be described then as a third force. However, APC’s spectacular victory reshaped the party into a formidable power bloc. Ironically, the shocking underperformance of the party with the broom, has birthed a brand new third force.

 From our brief historical survey, we can surmise then that “third forces” have risen and fallen on the Nigerian political landscape, not for lack of enthusiasm on the part of proponents but the profound lack of support structures to sustain their initial momentum. Will NIM be any different?  For now, there is no reason to think so, never mind the high social profiles of its founding drivers.

 For a striking reason that may only be explained by the elitist background of its canvassers, every failed effort to neutralise entrenched power blocks in Nigeria, depended solely on a quick and stunning grab for electoral or military upset, as in the case of Banjo, Ifeajuna & Co. Upon the collapse of its primary gambit, the third force turns easily to sheer farce.  Reason: inability to nurture the movements beyond the immediate tactical objective. Will NIM be different?

 The list of its prime movers show a number of characters who mistook intellectual profundity for political sagacity and made misguided grabs for high political offices in the recent past. On their behalf, perhaps, NIM is concerned “that the political elite, since independence, and particularly, since the exit of the military from visible power in 1999, has proved that it is ill-equipped and unprepared for the challenge of transforming our nation from its under-developed status to one that is prosperous...”

 High sounding, yes, but plain hyperbole! It is simply amazing that idealists who claim they want to change the political order, are deploying the scorched earth language of the political order they want to replace.

 By what rational measure can Olisa Agbakoba (co-chair); Jhalil Tafawa Balewa (co-chair); Pat Utomi (deputy chair); Rabiu Ishyaku Rabiu (deputy chair); Isah Aremu (deputy chair) and Akin Osuntokun (deputy chair) claim to be more equipped and prepared to run Nigeria better than say, a two term former vice president, two term former governors and former ministers, rearing now to run for president?

 Certainly, an Atiku with 96 months of experience working for Nigeria at the highest echelon of state, is a surer choice for many, than any erudite theorist who has no record of service on the national stage.
My advice: Let the new third force work hard to make an impression this time around. Let them be prepared also for the long haul, not fade away on failing to win the 2019 elections.