Prof. Uche Ikonne


By Chidinma Omar 

The governorship election scheduled for March 11, 2023 may be,  give or take five months away, but for the political parties and their governorship candidates that is not a very  long time. As a matter of fact, until the battle is lost or won, anything can happen

For Abia State, from a cursory glance,  it seems a crowded race with about eight parties considered as running strong in the race. Of course, there are several fringe parties, but their presence is not being felt in the larger political space beyond their offices.

This article will examine how the four frontline parties in the race, namely the All Progressive Congress, APC; All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA; Labour Party, LP and  People Democratic Party, PDP are faring: Their strengths and weaknesses so far.


PDP, With Professor Uche Ikonne as guber flagbearer

Background:

All things being equal, the PDP is the party to beat in Abia State. It has the largest structure across the 17 LGAs of the State, and has been in government since the dawn of democracy in 1999, except for 2007-2011 when the outgoing governor, Orji Uzor Kalu pulled his political structure out of the party to float the PPA which went on to produce his successor, Theodore A Orji. But from 2011, TA Orji returned to the PDP and it continues in power to date

As the ruling party, members believe having the party's ticket is as good as winning the proper election, thus the governorship selection process for the party was the most turbulent the party may have had so far with eight aspirants purchasing the nomination forms

The crowded race for the governorship race was caused by one factor: The controversy and disagreement in the party over what the Abia Charter of Equity which determines the zoning of the governorship ticket really is. With incumbent Governor Okezie Ikpeazu completing the zoning of the governorship across the three senatorial districts, there was no unanimity how his successor should emerge. And the question whether the Charter of Equity is about zoning on senatorial districts; Or zoning between the two political blocs of Old Aba or Ukwa-Ngwa and Old Bende Divisions could not be answered to the satisfaction of all stakeholders

However, in a subtle brinksmanship, Gov Ikpeazu, contended that since his successors had always produced their successors, similar privilege should also be extended to him. His wish granted by the party, he zoned the guber ticket to the Ukwa-Ngwa part of Abia Central Senatorial District. There was an uproar.  And he argued that since the governorship ticket stayed a total of 16 years in Old Bende division, it should equally stay for the same period in Old Aba division. His submission failed to satisfy the ruling clique in the party, and a crack appeared in their midst

Even among his Ukwa-Ngwa brothers,  a bitter and acrimonious struggle ensued, and two leading lights and gubernatorial aspirants of Ukwa-Ngwa axis, all former allies  rapidly found themselves out of favour with the governor. The include the multi-millionaire businessman, Enyinnaya Nwafor who went on to pick the governorship ticket of the Young Peoples Party, YPP and Ncheta Omerekpe who quietly exited from their governorship race.

Their point of disagreement was the anointing of Professor Uche Ikonne by the governor as his successor. There was unanimity amongst the aspirants that the process was not fair and transparent. Even the party's ruling clique complained bitterly of being sidelined

A notable decampee from the party include former Senate Minority Leader, Senator Enyi Abaribe who after his disagreement and inability to get the governorship ticket defected to APGA to seek a return to the Senate.

Gov Ikpeazu also collided with former Senate President, Senator Adolphous Wabara who also expressed reservation over the zoning of the governorship


Strengths:

The PDP boasts of the largest structure in the State, spread across the 17 LGAs down to its numerous wards. It is also fielding candidates in all the elections from the House of Assembly, House of Representatives and the Senate, all of whom could be trusted to campaign for the party in their respective wards/LGAs

The party would also ride on the incumbency privileges of Gov Ikpeazu, and could therefore boast of sufficient resources in terms of human and monetary resources to persecute the election It would also be riding on the experience and on the field lessons  garnered from previous elections


Weakness:

The party is still nursing its  post-primary election trauma which saw it losing five of its governorship aspirants to other parties. It is a matter of conjecture to say it has sufficiently recovered and is ready to face the election as one family. One zone, the Abia North believe they were robbed of their turn to produce the governor, and currently the APC controls the Senate and House of Representative seats there, so the outing of the PDP here seems predictable.

External factor: First,  The presidential and National Assembly Elections which come up two weeks earlier before the governorship election on March 11 may be a game-changer. Presently PDP's Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and Gov Ikpeazu are not on the same template. The governor belongs to the Governor Nyesom Wike-led faction in the PDP which wants the National Chairman of the party Iyorchia Ayu sacked for peace to return to the party. As this conflict persists, nobody is certain how it will end, and whether the governor will work for Atiku's success or not.

Second, the emergence of Peter Obi as Labour Party Presidential candidate poses a real threat to the PDP. If the revolutionary appeal of Peter Obi translates to electoral victory, then PDP would be displaced in Abia, its traditional stronghold. For Abians, it would be good riddance to nonsense as they argue the over 20 years reign of the party in the State is nothing to write home about.

The PDP flagbearer, Prof Ikonne have neither the popularity nor the structure to help himself, and he is banking 100% on the already divided PDP house, In the likely event that PDP loses the Presidential and National Assembly elections, Prof Ikonne and Gov Ikpeazu would be left to their fate. Of the three senatorial candidates, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu of the APC  is ahead of his opponents in the race to the Senate; In Abia Central, PDP candidate is not a popular choice while in Abia South, Gov Ikpeazu would face a stiff fight with Sen. Abaribe who would leave nothing to chance to return to the Senate for the fifth time. Incidentally, both are from the same Ugwunagbo LGA.

Even in his Umunneato Ngwa bloc where he comes from, Prof Ikonne would face stiff opposition in YPP's guber flagbearer, Enyinnaya Nwafor who is more grounded and has wider appeal. The PDP structure in this district is also in bits and pieces having lost its House of Representative member, Darlington Nwokocha, representing the bloc to the Labour Party as well as its House of Assembly member for Isiala Ngwa State Constituency, Ginger Onwusibe also to the Labour Party. Ikonne's pains would be made worse by the Labour Party governorship candidate, Alex Otti, who is using Isiala Ngwa South as his LGA of origin. That Prof Ikonne is not the favourite in his Umunneato Ngwa axis played out recently when the Ukwa la Ngwa Council of Elders led by its Founder/Leader, Dr Max Nduaguaibe were split in the middle over endorsement for him. 

Dr Nduaguibe, an old war horse of  Abia politics does not belong to the PDP, but  laid the soft landing for the zoning of the governorship ticket to Umunneato Ngwa. But he balked at getting the Council, and by implication the whole Ukwa-Ngwa bloc to commit to the success of Prof Ikonne. PDP elders in the Council finally pulled out to endorse him

The best position to examine the chances of Prof Ikonne getting elected is to look back to examine how his predecessors were elected. Former Governor, Orji Uzor Kalu was so confident of installing his successor that he pulled out of the PDP to do so when the national leadership insisted on having their way.

In the 2011 election, then governor, T A Orji having fallen out of favour with his godfather, Orji Kalu had to run back to the PDP fold to defeat him. What worked for him was a combination of incumbency power and the PDP structure, which he strengthened by returning some of the faction which defected to PPA.

The question whose answer is floating in the air is whether Gov Ikpeazu and what remains of the PDP could deliver Prof Ikonne. Lest we forget, the PDP government was also in control of the Federal Government at the centre then and the question does not arise of it losing any of the States already controlled by it. The scenario differs today and a lot is still unfolding as the Country moves towards the General Election