Three things, first, the demographic deceit. I was in Owerri and I monitored the Labour Party rally which was tagged Two Million March. As a journalist who started off on the sports beat and as a Catholic who understands sitting arrangements, the crowd in Owerri was less than 200, 000 but LP members put the figure at almost one million.
The Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri is 10,000 capacity and it has the largest space for any organized event. And the LP rally was never staged at the stadium.
Yet, if you are not used to demography, you will think that Dan Anyiam Stadium is stuffed with 500,000 capacity crowd. LP fans are not realistic in their brandishing of figures. But Obi has a huge following across the country. In the South East now, he is the most loved, most admired and most followed politician. Only Zik and Ojukwu had such record.
Two, I also agree that BAT - Bola Ahmed Tinubu - can shock all and emerge the president because this is Nigeria - we do things wrongly and justify it.
If it were where achievements or failures are used to determine election, APC has no reason to make any noise as it has brought complete and comprehensive ruination on Nigeria in the last seven years. The party's misdeeds cannot bear repetition here. We all know them.
On BAT, again, I am looking at it from Awo and Abiola angles. Why did Nigeria not listen to Awo's presidential bid in spite of his acclaimed sophistication? Why was Abiola stoped despite being the most nationally accepted politician ever (Only Zik in 1959/60 came close)? And now BAT.
"Awo was trim, dapper and austere. Abiola was an imperialist, flamboyant and loved by almost everybody". These two men failed.
Now BAT seems to have taken so much from both Awo and Abiola, and subtracting their respective flaws, he has built on their perceived hight points - this has worked for him, so far: I suspect, this was what made him to shock everyone in the APC presidential primary election.
The bait is on: will BAT go the way of Awo and Abiola or, since he is toeing and even toing the Obasanjo philosophy with sophistry, will he succeed like the Nigerian president between 1999 and 2007?
The mathematics is more on the body language of President Buhari who does fail those who work for him. Buhari seems to practically understand that without Tinubu and his South West intervention in 2015, he wouldn't have been elected president. Therefore, he is said to be ready to reward Tinubu for the 2015 good job and to a large extent, keeping the hard fighting and professionally truculent Yoruba press in the cooler as they were never hard on Buhari and APC no matter thier huge failures.
Yet, there are those who said Tinubu is sick and so, cannot lead a sick country. There are those who say Tinubu will do with the Yoruba oligarchy what Buhari has been doing with the Fulani feudal lords. At least, the examples of how Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu's media spin doctors have been attacking Peter Obi and his Igbo nation have been quite horrendous and horrific. There are those who believe that Tinubu who never visited South East while campaigning during the pre presidential primary election will further marginalize Ndigbo. That is, Tinubu will not be nationalistic in his approach but tribalistic.
This is why it appears as if the north, on paper, is tilting towards Atiku. Why is Rufai not talking? Why is Adamu, the APC national chairman, not comfortable Tinubu as can be conformed from the leaked letter? Why did Tambuwal, a PDP governor, emerged the chairman of NGF and not an APC northern governor? Even at that, the APC governors who know BAT's emergence may be their blessing after eight years are with him.
Two, on Obi, I look at it from two angles. Will Obi shock Nigeria the way Obama and Trump's emergence did in America? That is, Obi's message is clear and well accepted. His record of immaculate performance and noble achievements are a pointer to what he can do for Nigeria when elected.
However, I still doubt the sincerity of the Yoruba people supporting Obi. This is so because I was a Lagos Boy. I practically understand why the Yoruba mean when they describe an Igbo "Omo Igbo". It is a derogatory slogan. In other words, the Yoruba I know, will find it extremely difficult to vote for an Igbo, Obi when a Yoruba, BAT is standing for an election. Zik suffered rejection in South West because of Awo. Dr Alex Ekwueme who was the father of the six geo political zones in the country today, was never appreciated by the Yoruba because of Obasanjo. Thus, I cannot see an average Yoruba leaving Tinubu for Obi.
As it is with the Youruba on Igbo matter so also it is with the Hausa/ Fulani. It is alleged that the December 31, 1983 coup was contrived because Ekwueme, an Igbo, and deputy to President Shehu Shagari would have been the president in 1987. The Hausa - Fulani soldiers who fought the civil war could not stand or understand how they would have an Igbo, a former Biafran who fought against them, as their commander in chief. Thus, they think that an Igbo president can only be possible when they (north) want it to happen. Is Obi the man they want?
The South - South is even worse off. Why did Governor Nyesom Wike insist on being the president of Nigeria on the platform of PDP when his kinsman Goodluck Jonathan ruled Nigeria for six years? Why did he not support the ambition of Obi in PDP? This is the stand of an average South - South person towards Ndigbo. They allude that Zik committed a blunder against them he removed their brother and installed Michael Okpara as Eastern Premier (this is a story for another day).
In all, Obi is the best of the three candidates on paper. But the Nigerian hatred on Ndigbo may affect him. Tinubu is sick and like Awo, not well loved across the country but the Nigerian election sophistry counts in his favour. Atiku is not very strong in the South East as he was in 2019 but his Fulani people are giving him surreptitious and clandestine support.
If the election is left free and fair, it is a direct battle between Atiku and Obi. If the power of incumbency is brought to bear, as alleged by Ugochinyere Ikenga concerning compromising INEC's voters registration, before 10pm on February 25, 2023, Tinubu would have emerged Nigeria's president!!!
Martins is a journalist and publisher of New Oriental newspaper
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