By Nnaemeka Oruh


Nigeria was meant to be great. As a country, it has all the essentials to be one of the greatest countries in the world. Perhaps, there was a time when the so called giant of Africa was really at least a functional country. While I am not a fan of the concept of “the good old days”, stories from important books written by prestigious writers such as Chinua Achebe, and indeed some old photographs show that at least there was a time when the country was functional. A time when a school leaver was guaranteed of a job and scholarships if he or she wanted to study abroad. A time when one could drive from the ancient city of Ibadan to Enugu at all times of the day and not be worried that he or she may not arrive his or her destination. So, at least, the country had certain vestiges of a functional country. 


It does however seem that for Nigeria, the journey has been that of moving from a higher position, downward. A good metaphor for this is the movement of our Naira against the U.S Dollar. Another is how we moved from a country of people who enjoyed taking night buses from say the South East to Lagos in the early to late 2000s to a nation of people who cannot even comfortably embark on road trips in the daytime. So one has consistently witnessed a downward plunge by the country in the key indicators of proper growth. 


Peter Obi 


I have stuck to the use of functionality of the society to describe growth here because it is important that the reader understands that the growth brought about by an explosion in information and communication technology has nothing to do with measuring functionality in a society. If anything, the ICT revolution was an external force acting on Nigerian citizens whom by sheer personal drive to excel, have sought to provide for themselves growth from external sources. 


This of course brings me to my premise which is that the non-functionality of the Nigerian society barrels down to a failure of leadership. 


Musa Yar'Adua


Failure of leadership in Nigeria is not recent. A keen student of history can easily trace the origins to the First Republic. It seemed that having fought so hard to gain independence from the British, Nigeria’s first generation of leaders turned on themselves and began an unprecedented selfish battle for dominance which set the stage for what I like to call “the loop of leadership failure in Nigeria”. 


It is not within the focus of this article to explain how our first generation leaders got it wrong. My focus here is to first affirm that Nigeria is a failed state. But, in making this assertion, I have also tried to point out that this journey in leadership failure did not just begin. For the greater part of Nigeria’s existence as an independent nation, the country has been bedevilled by leadership failure. 


Murtala Mohammed 


Yet there have been times when hope arose within Nigerians and we looked forward to a renaissance that would catalyse an enduring and positive change. The first of that was in 1975 when General Murtala Mohammed took over power from General Yakubu Gowon. It is recorded that Mohammed’s “great clean up” of the system kindled hope and Nigerians believed that the country would finally be firmly placed on the right path. Whether Mohammed’s efforts would have been what we call “initial gra gra” can only be the stuff of conjecture. He died too early for us to know for sure. The same can also be said of President Umar Musa Yar’adua. Seemingly focused, self-deprecating and with revolutionary ideas on how to address critical issues in the country, Yar’adua had great ideas and if not for sickness and death, one would assume would have turned the country around. Again hope died.


I have deliberately left the election of June 12 1993 to be the last. This is because that election represented for most Nigerians of my generation, a genuine first time when the people of Nigeria bonded together irrespective of tribe and religion and stood behind a man whom they believed possessed all the qualities they needed in a leader. Unfortunately, despite the fact that Chief Moshood Kashimolowo Abiola scored the highest number of votes and was widely acclaimed to be the winner of that election, General Ibrahim Babangida, then Military President of Nigeria, annulled that election. A cold blanket was thrown over Nigerians and again, hope died. 


So for Nigeria, it seems that everytime there is a vestige of hope, something crushes it thus making some of the older generation feel that the country is irredeemably cursed with bad leadership.


Next year, Nigerians go to the polls again with another chance at finally commencing the journey of getting it right. Almost every concerned Nigerian believes that the 2023 election offers Nigeria with the last chance to get it right within the first half of this century. This belief that 2023 presents Nigeria with the last chance to get it right is anchored on a variety of factors. The one that is predominant seems to be the belief that if the current wave of political awareness from Nigeria’s young people does not translate to their preferred candidate winning the Presidential election or performing creditably well in the polls, the people will become disillusioned, the enthusiasm will fade, and like their parents before them, they will settle into the stagnant water of “this country is cursed” and the establishment would have won. So the consequences of 2023 would be that this wave of political awareness will either transform into massive belief in the power of the people and faith in the electoral system, or end in the anti-climax of political depression, loss of interest in politics, and perhaps chaos. 


Yakubu Gowon 


And there are a number of young persons who pride themselves on the old system always triumphing and have coined and reinforced the sayings “lessons will be learnt” and “doubts will be cleared” to imply that passionate love for change does not translate to victory on this side and so one must always side with the establishment. So this small group of young persons consistently attack the anti-establishment youths as dreamers


Still one can argue that the 2023 elections will be different. This stems from the clear signs that there is a natural wave pushing to change the status quo and enthrone a government at the centre which is fully controlled by the people and which will be fully accountable to the people— a true government of the people, for the people, and by the people. The lead up to the election has been framed by a people-driven renewed hope (not the ironical one of the All Progressives Congress which in one breath says the current government it leads has done well, and in another is offering hope! ).


Three things gave rise to this new wave which has been nicknamed “the Obidient movement” after the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Gregory Obi. 


The first was that decades of maladministration as I discussed above have rendered Nigeria decrepit and transformed it into a failed state. The second was the ENDSARS movement which showed the youths of the country that they are able to shun tribal and religious sentiments and fight a common foe. The third is technology. These young people, through the globalisation of the world have seen that their country deserves better and can be better having seen, through the social media and of course by traveling to other countries, how other countries easily provide basic things for their citizenry. At their disposal is also social media with which they suddenly realised they can rally their mates across the country and be heard. So they have doubled down and decided that it was time to fight for the soul of Nigeria, take back their country, and position it on a path to its destined greatness. It is easy to see (but only by the objective mind) that these Obidients will be sure to kick against and even vote out their currently preferred candidate if he fails to live up to their expectations when elected. It is also easy to see (again by only an objective mind) that the success of the Obidient movement will set in motion an unprecedented trust in the system and proper leadership accountability(which will in turn engender proper leadership and do away with the current system where leaders feel they are doing the people a favour). 


While the young Nigerians trying to take back their country may not have the political knowledge of their peers who believe that “lessons will be learnt”, what they have are pure hunger, passion, drive, and commitment to ensure their country starts its journey to recovery and greatness. They have therefore rallied round Mr. Peter Obi to be the vessel through which they can begin this journey. Quite frankly, they do not see him as a saint. Instead, they see him as a less-soiled member of the establishment who embodies a tool through which they can break free and start a new process. This has not gone down well with the establishment and its supporters. But, no one expects a private club of privileged people to willingly give up their privileged status. 


And so the battle for the soul of Nigeria rages on. 


In 2023, “lessons will be learnt”. But, the “lessons” could be learnt by either side. 


* Oruh writes from Abuja. He is on Twitter as @Oruhnc