Darlington Nwokocha |
The election of the Senator for Abia Central Senatorial district in the 2023 General Elections promises to be war by other means . A significant reason for this is traceable to the dislocation in the People's Democratic Party, PDP which had been in government of Abia state for 20 years plus.
At the root of the dislocation is the decision by the ruling PDP administration of Governor Okezie Ikpeazu to zone the governorship to the Senatorial district. Having zoned the governorship to the Ukwa-Ngwa North LGA, the Senate seat was zoned to Ikwuano LGA to create a kind of balance
Only, Ikwuano and Isiala-Ngwa North LGAs from the two divides in Abia: Old Bende and Old Aba - are yet to occupy the Senate seat and contenders from there argue from a sense of emotional entitlement why 2023 is their turn.
Austin Akobundu |
Three other parties - the Young Peoples Party, YPP, Labour Party, LP and All Progressive Congress, APC relying on their internal peculiarities zoned both the governorship and Senate tickets to the Umunneato sub-group of Old Aba, while the APC gave theirs to Ikwuano/Umuahia axis of Old Bende.
Indeed, the four parties: APC, Labour, PDP and YPP are the real contenders in the Senate race. APGA trails far behind.
According to INEC's list, there are six other parties on the ballot, but nothing has been heard of them on the campaign trail, and one can safely suggest they will garner negligible votes in the election as the parties lack name recognition and are likely to be ignored.
How will the big four parties of APC, Labour, PDP and YPP fare? Where are their strongholds and what could make or mare their chances?
Sam Onuigbo |
i. APC: Sam Onuigbo
The APC flagbearer, Rep Sam Onuigbo would have been the front runner in the Senate race, but internal party bickering and lately a protracted litigation over the ticket has considerably dampened enthusiasm in the party, and demoralised it's members
Onuigbo, member representing Ikwuano/Umuahia N/S Federal Constituency, three of the LGAs making up the Senatorial district would have used his incumbency as a leverage, but APC's internal contradiction appears to have decimated such gains
All things being equal, the three LGAs would have given the APC an edge as they also produced it's governorship candidate, Ikechi Emenike, unfortunately, the APC guber flagbearer is a lightweight whose impact in the National Assembly election would make minimal difference. Both Labour Party and PDP are determined to make a strong showing in his Umuahia North LGA. Besides, Emenike and Onuigbo belong to different factions of the party, and it remains anyone's guess whether they would put party first during the election
A similar scenario would also play out in Onuigbo's Ikwuano LGA where Hon Emeka Atuma with whom he tussled for the ticket also belongs to a different faction. Would Atuma lick his wounds and mobilise his large following in Ikwuano to support Onuigbo? The answer is blowing in the wind.
Still in his Ikwuano, Onuigbo would be scrambling for votes with the PDP and the fast growing Labour Party whose Presidential candidate, Peter Obi is being used to market the party.
ii. Labour: Darlington Nwokocha
Labour Party's Hon Darlington Nwokocha could be regarded as the undisputed front runner for now. He is also a House of Representatives member representing Isiala-Ngwa North/South Federal Constituency, and benefitting from Peter Obi's growing popularity.
He is also said to have a strong grip of his constituency, which is further strengthened by Labour's House of Representatives candidate for the Constituency, Hon Ginger Onwusibe. Both, former PDP members are working round the clock to ensure they do not lose the Constituency. Onwusibe, currently, member of Abia State House of Assembly enjoys widespread popularity in Isiala-Ngwa North.
Chuku Wachuku |
With assured votes from two LGAs up his belt, Nwokocha would still need votes from Osisioma, Ikwuano,and Umuahia North and South LGAs to turn the table in his favour. Perhaps, the Peter Obi growing popularity may mark up the difference in his favour
iii. PDP: Austin Akobundu
Col. Austin Akobundu (rtd), former this, former that in national politics is a collosus in the race. His determined efforts, plus that of the PDP to win the Ikwuano/Umuahia North/South Federal Constituency is a plus in his favour. On the flip side, feelers that Abia masses are disenchanted with the ruling PDP due to what they perceive as it's unprecedented woeful performance in the socio-economic sectors raises doubts if the votes would go in his favour.
Nonetheless, the widespread Abia PDP network features in his favour as the three Old Aba LGAs have promised to deliver their votes for him while he in turn mobilises votes from the Old Bende side to produce a PDP governor. The downside in this arrangement is that it lacks unanimity as party chieftains do not agree on the process leading the zoning of the guber ticket.
iv. YPP: Chuku Wachuku
The Chuku Wachuku, the YPP candidate and the YPP governorship candidate, Enyinnaya Nwafor were former PDP members whose defection were caused by the outcome of its primary.
Both lost out in the governorship and senatorial primaries respectively. The YPP, a relatively new party in Abia is riding on the waves of Nwafor's shoulders.
The demise of PDP governorship candidate, Prof Uche Ikonne may drive the Old Aba votes in favour of the YPP in view of their determination to produce the governor. In addition, Wachuku would scramble for votes in his Isiala-Ngwa North and Osisioma LGAs with the PDP, but the Ikwuano/ Umuahia axis may prove a tough call for him as the party lacks substantial presence there.
How They Stand
Three factors have enabled Labour Party's Nwokocha to outpace his fellow contenders namely his unassailable hold on two LGAs - Isiala Ngwa North and South; The widespread disenchantment in his former party, the PDP and the growing ObiDatti movement which yearns for a new order.
PDP's Akobundu trails behind Nwokocha powered by the incumbency factor and it's widespread network. Indeed, his ability to gain dominance in his Ikwuano LG could tilt the outcome in his favour
Onuigbo's absence as a topmost contender bothers on APC's dismal outing at the Centre, the bickering and internal contradiction in the State chapter of the party and demoralised followership in his Ikwuano LG
All things being equal, the final outcome is indeed a race too close to call, as the candidates, ever incurable optimists are still pushing hard with their campaign train, never yielding an inch till it's over
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