TONY ICHEKU analyses the chances of APC's candidate, Senators Hope Uzodimma; Samuel Anyanwu and Athan Achonu of the PDP and LP respectively in the  November 11, 2023 governorship election in Imo State 

 


Five days to the November 11, 2023 governorship election in Imo State, three political parties - All Progressives Congress, APC; People Democratic Party, PDP and Labour Party, LP bestride  the State's political space, creating an impression of a 3-horse race. An impression not entirely conclusive as 14 other political parties cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC are equally jostling to occupy Douglas House, or Imo Government House. Nonetheless, the loudness of the trio  reflects the capacity of their governorship candidates and  presence of party structures across the 27 LGAs of the State, thus  it could really be a 3-horse race all things being equal.


The APC governorship candidate, Governor Hope Uzodimma is the incumbent seeking a second term. APC emerged in the State when former governor, Rochas Okorocha defected from APGA in 2023. The party suffered a mild casualty when Okorocha's misadventures in the succession game cost the party the State, however, it quickly recovered via the Supreme Court judgement of January 14, 2020 which removed PDP's Emeka Ihedioha and declared Uzodimma as the duly elected governor of Imo State with the majority of lawful votes cast in the 2019 governorship election. 


 The PDP governed the State from 1999-2007, and briefly made a rebound in 2019 election when INEC declared Emeka Ihedioha winner  with 273,404 votes. 


The LP emerged as a strong force in the State in the 2023 General Election buoyed by the Peter Obi - it's presidential candidate's frenzy or what observers describe as a populist yearning to overthrow the old political order which appear crippled by fresh leadership ideas for a new dawn. The LP and 'Obidatti' movement,  empowered by technology and youthful dynamism has quickly established its presence nationwide, Imo State inclusive.


Definitely the outcome of the Imo off season governorship election would not be determined by the campaign promises of the governorship candidates to deliver on  unemployment, infrastructure,  healthcare, or insecurity -  it's biggest challenge so far, but by  intrigues and subtle manipulation of the process. 


Hanging like a dark cloud over the State is the outcome of the 2023 General Election which created the impression that votes do not count. Though various non-governmental and civil society organisations have embarked on various voters education workshops, the negative impression, especially at the grassroots point to voters apathy during the election. Thus, faced with a low voters turnout, it is  the camp able to manipulate the low turnout that would run away with the prize.


Uzodimma's albatross is the perception of Imo under his watch as a hotbed of  insecurity and bloody violence, a phenomenon which has whittled down the socio-economic fortunes of Imo people. His invitation on February 23, 2021 to the military to 'crush' the IPOB irredentists backfired and today few days to the election certain portions of Orlu, Oru, Okigwe and Osu LGAs are depopulated as the residents have all fled or the areas are under the grip of so-called unknown gunmen.


In addition, LP's guber candidate Sen Athan Achonu, argue that the climate of violence and insecurity in the State are further orchestrated by the governor as a strategy of  suppressing dissent and pushing the opposition to the wall in order to record overwhelming victory in the Nov . 11 election.


However, APC's State Publicity Secretary argue that "No LGA is off limits to any party or its candidates, and no LGA has been overtaken by hoodlums or non State actors. Insecurity is not significant enough to threaten participation in the election, inasmuch as we acknowledge that there is insecurity, but it is not significant enough to constitute a threat to the election ", he submitted.


How would the candidates fare?


Hope Uzodimma

The election would be a vote of confidence on Uzodimma. Is he really a 'Supreme Court governor' or not?   The sobriquet 'Supreme Court governor' hangs on his neck like a milestone, an oblique reference to   the  January 14, 2020 Supreme Court judgment which pronounced him as the duly elected governor of Imo State with the majority of lawful votes cast in the 2019 governorship election. Though the decision of the apex Court is clear enough, but the perception on the streets  refuses to buy into the apex Courts argument that there are extraneous factors which catapulted  Uzodimma from the fourth position he was placed by INEC after the election to the top, thus the taunting reference   to him as ‘The Supreme Court governor'. 


A joker in Uzodimma's favour that may  stop his opponents include the clannish card, plus  the Federal might. He had been two-terms Senator of  Imo West Senatorial district or the Orlu zone, which with its 12 LGAs clearly dictates who governs the State, Uzodimma is bent on riding on this wave to victory. Other political heavyweights from the zone including Senator Osita Izunaso have also promised him their support.


Uzodimma is  working the clannish card  to suit his interests, by playing up the almost non existent 'Imo Charter of Equity' as a non stop song. Eze Cletus Ilomuanya  from the same zone once described the Charter of Equity which recommended rotation of the governorship as  dead and buried, but Uzodimma has resurrected it, promising to pick his successor from the Owerri zone. It seems a juicy bait, especially for the political elites from the zone who has bought into it line and sinker. In a divide and rule strategy, he has sharply divided the Mbaise and Owerri sub-groups in the Imo East Senatorial district or Owerri zone, with the Mbaise political elites literally eating from his palms


The Federal might would equally come in handy for Uzodimma as the APC-led Federal Government would not be willing to lose Imo, it's strongest South-East ally either to the ubiquitous LP or the fractured PDP. APC, as a ruling party is an attractive bait to political elites, some seeking political rehabilitation and revival or as a safe haven to escape investigation or prosecution for corruption charges. Big names  clustering around the Uzodimma ticket are described by observers as only  bargaining for a piece of the pie and may not really have the political good will to deliver him 


Further enhancing Uzodimma's chances is  the  APC structures which is spread across the length and breadth of Imo State and  further consolidated under his administration through the victory by APC of all the 27 House of Assembly seats in the March 18, 2023. Though the results are being contested by other parties which argue that the party rigged the process with some of the seats  being contested either  at the Elections Petition Tribunal or Court of Appeal.


From Okigwe or Imo North Senatorial district, APC stalwarts like former former governor, Ikedi Ohakim, multimillionaire businessman, Tony Chukwu are working round the clock to realize Uzodimma's second term ambition.


Samuel Anyanwu

Two times LG chairman, two-term House of Assembly member and former Senator, Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu is from Owerri zone and  has so much going for him, that only an unserious opponent would dismiss him with a wave of the hand.The PDP, like APC  equally boasts of  widespread structures, but the bickering and sabotage  rocking the party presently leaves much room for speculation whether  Anyanwu's potentials and  enormous goodwill would draw the winning votes.


"Nov 11 is an election between Uzodimma and the masses, and Anyanwu is the face of the masses, he is a homeboy and a national figure", says Sunny Ndukwu, the Deputy Director of Media and Publicity in the Divine Mandate Campaign Organization of Anyanwu


Ndukwu further rationalized his position that Uzodimma's despotic approach and intolerance manifested in the brutal assault visited on the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC President, Joe Ajaero who was assaulted in his home State for coming to defend the interests of the workers. But can the masses defend their votes? Ndukwu dodged the crucial question in this election and pointed to the State actors - The security agencies and INEC to do the needful as the only responsibility of the people is to vote their choice.


Observers see Anyanwu's potentials being diminished by the squabbles and internal contradictions in the PDP. With it's strongman, Emeka Ihedioha chickening out early in the race from the governorship contest. Inside party sources finger Anyanwu who as the PDP's National Secretary  as being the reason for Ihedioha's sudden exit, having outsmarted him in the run up to the governorship primary. Ihedioha's withdrawal from the race  eventually led to the exit from PDP  of  seven members of the state working committee, SWC who subsequently defected to the APC, pledging loyalty to Uzodimma.


Though Ihedioha has refused to declare his support either for Anyanwu or Uzodimma, his indifference has led to a leadership vacuum in the PDP which Uzodimma is milking to his advantage and weakening Anyanwu's chances.


However Ndukwu contends that PDP's fate would not determined by an individual, and argues that Anyanwu has become the rallying point of disenchanted Imolites. "From the SDP, Action Alliance, AA and LP, various  groups are indicating interest  in working with Anyanwu to free Imo from it's travails. The likes of Capt Emma Iheanacho, Senator Ifeanyi Ararume and well meaning Imolites are interested in moving towards a peaceful, progressive Imo which Anyanwu represents", he argued.


For Anyanwu, the wind could blow either way. But his camp would miss  the Ihedioha factor, indeed, it would seem the absence of Ihedioha in the race united Ihedioha's clannish Mbaise people to solidly line up behind Uzodimma. The choice of a deputy from the Owerri elite by Uzodimma  would all contribute in blunting  Anyanwu's sharp cutting edge


Athan Achonu

Multi-millionaire businessman-politician, Senator Athan Achonu, from Okigwe zone  is the newest kid on the block having emerged on the scene in 2015  when he won the Imo North Senate ticket for PDP, but a Court of Appeal judgement reversed his victory. 


His emergence as LP flagbearer has considerably weakened the party due to internal bickering after it's hotly contested governorship primary. With Achonu picking the LP ticket,  several 'Obedients' who would have brought the Peter Obi wave to bear on the election quickly defected from  the party 


Besides the exit of Ochudo Martin Agbaso, the Imo Director-General of the Obidatti Campaigns Council, other LP chieftains, like General Jack Ogunewe left the party to pick the Action Alliance,  AA ticket. While others like Dr Sam Amadi have refused to support Achonu's, others  like Dr Fabian Ihekweme, a former Commissioner in the Uzodimma administration and one time gubernatorial candidate had subtly defected back to the Uzodimma camp.


 Equally,  the claims of Joseph Ukaegbu that he is LP's flagbearer had been an avoidable distraction for the party, and it's followers.


Achonu lacks Peter Obi's zesty  charisma and philosophical thrust on governance and had been unable to generate a massive masses or youthful following exemplified by the Obidient movement during the Presidential Election. However, the presence of the youthful Tony Nwulu, a former governorship candidate is seen as  a plus for his camp. But for now,   it is difficult to determine who,  between Anyanwu or Achonu would harvest the votes  in the urban  Owerri zone  where collapsing infrastructure, especially road network have distanced the people from the government, and where a large turnout of voters are expected.


Indeed,  a decisive mindshift by the people and a high turnout of voters might favour either  the LP or PDP candidate, but there are fears that the insecurity scare may  checkmate such development.


Findings show that Ihedioha was able to triumph in the 2019 by winning with the largest votes from the nine LGAs of Owerri zone and consolidating with votes from one or two LGs from Orlu and Okigwe zones. Would the same formula work for Achonu or Anyanwu?


  While both Owerri and Okigwe zones are bitter that the Orlu zone has had more than its fair share of the governorship, occupying it for 20 out of 24 years of democracy, there  does  not appear so far an indication that Okigwe and Owerri would forge a common front and  combine their joint 15 LGAs against Orlu's 12, thus the Uzodimma joker, even as he seems assured that votes from Orlu's 12 LGAs are safely under his belt.


How would it all play out? Uzodimma may ride on clannish sentiments to pool majority of the votes from Orlu zone while the votes from Okigwe and Owerri zones would be split between Anyanwu and Achonu. Political observers would not stick out their neck to predict the outcome of the election contending that it would be an unpredictable race which last minute gameplan could swing in favour of any of the three strong contenders or where  an alliance between two of the three, would narrow the fight to one versus one fight, rather than a three-horse race


Lesser Parties

Lesser parties in the race like Ogunewe's AA, Anthony Ejiogu's APGA and Ikenga Okere's Accord Party are seen as allies whose support would come handy in the post-election intrigues and bargaining that would surely follow. In the pre-election period, their lack of resources and spread across the States has relegated them to the background.


credit:  thisdaylive.com